In which we discuss still more 2012 facts—Matt Zinno points out that we are emerging from a spell of years with repeated digits, and in fact this is just about the longest run in the last 1000 years! (So, folks, enjoy working out other long spells!)
Ben Anderman shares his online Princess-and-Suitor app.
The challenge this week is to work out a strategy for the following game, that works 50% of the time on average:
The Victim believes you will lose twice as often as you win, so in order to make money, you should somehow get The Victim to bet a little bit more than you do, say $1.50 for each $1 you put up.
The Victim writes any three numbers on three pieces of paper, turns them over, and mixes them up.
One by one you flip over a card, and then either stop, selecting that one, or discard it and move on. If you select the highest number overall, you win!
We discussed this in more generality a long time ago, but this version has the merit that it’s simple enough to demonstrate quickly, work out precisely why it works and on top of all that, of all the cases has the single highest probability of winning per round.